Analyses of the 14+ years of Parkfield monitoring data have
revealed significant and unambiguous departures from stationarity
both in the seismicity characteristics and in wave propagation
details. Synchronous with these changes have been
changes in the repeat times of characteristic microearthquakes sequences
, 
,
which have been related to slip loading rate variations at depth and
which have been used to provide a 4-D image of the evolution of slip
rates along the 25 km segment of the SAF spanning the presumed
nucleation region of the next Parkfield M6 earthquake (Nadeau and
McEvilly, 1999).
Our ongoing research is showing that this technique is applicable to other faults in Central California, and its more widespread application is revealing unexpected attributes of the kinematics of deformation along these faults and on scales ranging from a few meters to 100's of km.
, is also a particularly well constrained observable that can be
theoretically related to a variety of
physical processes linked to
earthquakes, fault structure, and fault deformation (e.g.
overall fault strength, stress drops, fault heterogeneity, fault deformation at
depth, slip loading of locked segments, fault healing rates, 'in-situ' friction,
and event-event triggering). However to provide accurate measurements of
these processes in an absolute sense, accurate
calibrations between and various constitutive properties
within the fault core (e.g. composition, texture, temperature,
stress, slip rate and fluid conditions) are needed. Currently such calibrations
must be inferred from surface observations, laboratory experiments and seismic
behavior. Ideally, however, they would come from 'in situ' measurement of
the fault zone-an expensive proposition.
The National Science Foundation, through its EarthScope initiative (SAFOD component), has recently proposed careful scientific drilling into the seismogenic zone of the active San Andreas (SA) fault at Parkfield. Scientific drilling would sample fault zone properties directly and, as proposed, at the site of a repeating earthquake sequence.
This effort promises to significantly enhance our understanding of the
physics of of this portion of the SAF and to provide the calibration
necessary for relating to the constitutive properties and
processes responsible for earthquakes and fault deformation at
Parkfield.
At the same time EarthScope, through its PBO and InSAR components, has proposed to increase the detail and extent of deformation measurements along a major plate boundary and throughout the country which should greatly improve estimates of fault slip from surface and space based observations.
This information, together with the ongoing discovery of widely distributed repeating earthquake sequences in central CA make it feasible to extrapolate (infer) the physical conditions- relative to those found at Parkfield-on 100's of km of fault in central California and elsewhere.
Small repeating earthquakes continue to be discovered in other regions of the world and on other fault types (e.g. convergent boundaries off the coast of Japan (Matsuzawa et al., 1999) and on normal faults in Greece (Dimitrief and McCloskey, 2000)). This suggests the possibility of inferring fault conditions elsewhere.
In the U.S., it is conceivable that a collateral benefit of the USARRAY
component of EarthScope will be the discovery of a significant number
of new repeating earthquake sequences in regions where low magnitude
seismicity has not been studied in detail. This has the potential to
greatly expand the geographic coverage where inferential methods based
on can be applied.
The following subsections summarize the current state of repeating earthquake studies at Berkeley, and give examples of how such studies are already changing our understanding of the kinematics of fault deformation.
The method of determining slip rates from earthquake recurrence has been developed in our research program using data from a borehole network along the active San Andreas fault zone at Parkfield, CA. Studies at very high resolution of microearthquakes occurring there since 1987 reveal a systematic organization in space and time, dominated by clustering of virtually identical, regularly recurring microearthquakes ('characteristic events') on patches meters to 10's of meters in dimension and located within the fault core. (Nadeau and McEvilly, 1997; 1999). At Parkfield, nearly half of the 5000+ events in the 1987-1998 catalog exhibit this trait and the sites where the repeating activity occurs are distributed throughout the slipping fault surface.
Nadeau and McEvilly (1999) showed that it is possible under reasonable
assumptions, to infer the spatial distribution of variations in
slip-rate on the fault surface from changes in the recurrence intervals
of the characteristic event sequences. They found, for example, that
during a 26-months period of greatly increased activity (M4.2, 4.6, 4.7 and
5.0 events and their aftershocks) accompanied increases exceeding 50 
in
previously stable recurrence intervals (and equivalently, inferred slip
rates) occurred. Langbein et al. (1999) also argue for a similar
slip rate increase at Parkfield based on evidence from surface deformation
measurements.
Another example of application of the repeating earthquake method having comparably good agreement with surface deformation can be found in Bürgmann et al. (2000). In this application, earthquake waveforms recorded by the surface regional NCSN along the northern segment of the Hayward fault were used.
A long enough time base of waveform data recorded on the deep borehole Hayward Fault Network has also now become available which should allow practical application of the repeating quake method to repeating sequences of much lower magnitude and consequent greater time resolution (see Hayward Fault research section, this report).
This year we initiated a computationally intensive search for characteristic sequences using the NCSN catalog on the southern Hayward, Calaveras, and Mission crossover faults (HF,CF, MF, respectively) where seismicity resembles the Parkfield clustering, but at a lower rate.
This stage of processing characterizes the waveform
similarity of all the event pairs separated by 7.5 km or less. Even at
reduced detection completeness (M 1.3) of the NCSN, we see large numbers of
highly similar and repeating events (coherency 
0.95)
distributed widely along all three faults, indicating the presence
of substantial repeating earthquake activity (Figure
15.1).
Using NCSN surface data we estimate the fractions of potential
repeaters to be about 10 15 and 25, for the northern HF, southern
HF/MF and CF segments respectively. The lowest fractions are
explainable in part by lower slip rates and higher magnitude
thresholds, since under these conditions recurrence intervals may be
longer than observation times. At Parkfield, where the slip rate is
much higher and using comparable NCSN data, the fraction of potential
repeaters is about
45.
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In our prototype analysis on the northern HF, we showed that sufficient information was available to resolve spatially varying features of slip using the NCSN but that monitoring of temporal variations was not practical with the limited resolution of the surface data set on such a slowly moving fault. To the South and East, on the faster moving MF and CF, we are finding sufficient rates of quake repetition to allow us to use NCSN data for monitoring transients as is currently being achieved on the faster slipping SAF to the West (Nadeau and McEvilly, 2000; and following section, this report).
To date earthquakes either identified as members of repeating earthquake sequences (about 200) or quakes having similar waveforms with cross-correlation coefficients greater than 0.98 at multiple stations (candidate repeaters, over 1800 quakes) have been identified. Future efforts will focus on completing the search for similar and repeating earthquakes on all of the HF, MF and CF seismicity, confirming their characteristic nature, grouping the repeaters into sequences, and inverting the resulting recurrence interval statistics into estimates of slip rates at depth and through time along these faults. Subsequent efforts are planned to determine the kinematics of slip through joint modeling of surface GPS, creep and space based data so that geologic questions regarding the details of slip in the complex of East Bay faults (particularly the Mission cross over region) can be investigated at much higher resolution.
As part of a more ambitious exploration of the extent to which clustering of repeating and highly similar microearthquakes characterizes active fault zones, we have devised a Cluster Signature (CS) measure of such behavior for any segment of a seismogenic fault. This characteristic helps provide the underlying recurrence statistic with which fault slip rate can be estimated, applying the methodology developed at Parkfield (Nadeau and McEvilly, 1999). We have embarked upon a Calibration/Extrapolation/Characterization of slip rate along the San Andreas Fault from South of Parkfield to the Southern extent of rupture of the 1989 Loma Prieta (LP) earthquake over the past 16 years, using the NCSN event catalog.
Initial results are fascinating, revealing portions of the fault extending over many tens of kilometers that exhibit coherent pulsing in slip rate. In addition, the pulses appear closely related to the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989,
In Figure 15.2 relative quiescence on the northern end of the segment is observed prior to LP, after which slip rates increase markedly-the LP locked segment appears to have exerted control on the SAF slip rates at distances greater than 30 km from the termination of its rupture. Also of interest is the fact that LP occurred coincidentally with the initiation of an ongoing pulsing cycle as seen further to the South (60 to 100 km).
Following LP, the periodic pulsing observed to the South (between 60 and 100 km) appears to extend northward and shows some correspondence to the occurrence of 3 slow silent quakes in the SJB area. The pulsing observed after LP also appears to be superposed on an exponential decay of slip rate corresponding to aftershock decay in the zone adjacent to and following the LP main event (upper right hand time history panel).
In the middle of the examined fault stretch, quasi-periodic pulsing of
slip rates with amplitude variations exceeding 50-100 are
pronounced with the north central portion repeating with about 3 year
periodicity and 1.6 year periodicity (less visible in this black and
white rendering) in the south central portion.
From 60 to about 20 km, a migration pulse can be inferred (when color contours are used). On this segment the SAF appears to act as a strain guide for the transference of the tectonic slip-load at a rate of about 25 km/yr. The migration pattern also appears to repeat itself as part of the more frequent (1.6 yr.) pulsing pattern.
To the South at Parkfield, pulsing is more difficult to define, although
considerable slip rate change is observed, in accordance with
observations of surface slip-rate change in that area
(Langbein et al., 1999).
Also noteworthy at Parkfield
is a distinct slow down in the slip rates
beginning in about 1998
indicating a transition to a phase of quiescence perhaps
preparatory to occurrence of the anticipated M6 there-similar to the quiescence
observed prior to LP and to the 
5.1 event at SJB to the North.
This research is testing the utility of the
repeating earthquake statistic and the waveform similarity
characterizations in defining fault kinematic processes and fault segment
boundaries based on the of characteristic repeating sequences-what
appears to be a robust quantitative measure of fault slip rate at depth.
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The juncture between the San Andreas fault and the southern Calaveras fault is a highly complex area where subsurface seismicity does not always follow surface fault traces and where secondary sub-parallel faults, such as the Quien Sabe fault zone, may play an active role in accommodating local shear deformation. The goal of this investigation is to determine the slip rate distribution of these faults at the juncture using repeating earthquake defined subsurface slip rates and surface geodetic measurements. To date, we have determined initial subsurface slip rates using the previously derived empirical formula of Nadeau and McEvilly, (1999) which combine recurrence intervals and moment magnitudes of repeating earthquakes to determine slip rates at depth of individual repeating earthquake sequences. Initial sequence estimates of slip rates for the San Andreas, southern Calaveras and Quien Sabe fault zone are found to be between 12 and 24 mm/yr, 4 and 13 mm/yr, and 4 and 10 mm/yr, respectively. Figures 15.3 and 15.4 show the location of these clusters with respect to background seismicity and surface fault traces. Due to the low rate of secular slip, the magnitude threshold of the NCSN catalog, and the limited observation time (17 years), we have only identified pairs of repeating earthquakes on the southern Calaveras fault and Quien Sabe fault zone. On the San Andreas fault, which has a higher rate of secular slip, we are able to see earthquakes that have recurrence intervals of as little as 2 years. Nevertheless, the simple fact that we find repeating earthquakes on these faults is important because it indicates that they are slipping at depth even though there may be no surface expression of this slip. For example, relatively high subsurface slip rates were found on the Quien Sabe fault zone but surface slip rate estimates there are only 1 mm/yr +/- 1mm (Bryant, 1985). In the future, the distribution of subsurface slip rate estimates will be improved by using relocated seismicity and through identification of a greater number of repeating earthquake sites. The slip rate inversion will use the improved subsurface slip rates and surface deformation data for a more accurate image of fault kinematics in the area.
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Bryant, W.A., Faults in the southern Hollister area, San Benito counties, California, California Division of Mines and Geology Fault Evaluation Report 164, 1985.
Bürgmann, R., D. Schmidt, R.M. Nadeau, M. d'Alessio, E. Fielding, D. Manaker, T.V. McEvilly, and M.H. Murray, Earthquake Potential along the Northern Hayward Fault, California, Science, 289, 1178-1182, 2000.
Dimitrief, A. and J. McCloskey, A search for Repeating Microearthquakes in Western Greece (abstract), EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. U. 81, F924, 2000.
Langbein, J., R. Gwyther, R. Hart, and M.T. Gladwin, Slip rate increase at Parkfield in 1993 detected by high-precision EDM and borehole tensor strainmeters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2529-2532, 1999.
Matsuzawa, T., T. Igarashi and A. Hasegawa, Characteristic Small Earthquake Sequence off Sanriku, Japan (abstract), EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. U. 80, F724, 1999.
Nadeau, R.M. and T. V. McEvilly, Seismological Studies at Parkfield V: Characteristic microearthquake sequences as fault-zone drilling targets, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1463-1472, 1997.
Nadeau, R.M. and T.V. McEvilly , Fault slip rates at depth from recurrence intervals of repeating microearthquakes, Science, 285, 718-721, 1999.
Nadeau, R.M. and T.V. McEvilly, Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Fault Slip from Repeating Micro-Earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault in Central California, EOS Trans., Am. Geophys. Union., 81, F919, 2000.