Both asymmetric and symmetric deformation models are able to fit the GPS observations in the azimuth N55. We confirm that the transverse compressive component of the deformation across the Hayward fault is negligible. The location of the strain measurable from the GPS observations in the SFBA and its related shear stress rate have a direct impact on the expected time-recurrence of large earthquake in the Bay Area (Thatcher, 1990). We argue that discriminating between the two models is necessary in order to better integrate the GPS observations into constraints on the seismic cycle deduced from the monitoring of the seismic events and long-term geological evidences.
Berkeley Seismological Laboratory
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