Discussion and future work

The present work shows the first grid search analysis done for AMR. Adjusting three major parameters of the AMR circular search (radius of the circular region, magnitude range of background seismicity and time period considered), the results of the AMR are positive for large earthquakes in southern California. The comparison of a more general AMR grid search over southern California and stress maps from 1965 to 2005 shows more variable results. The AMR is sensitive to the time and location of larger events during the period of time considered. If a large shock occurs near the beginning of the tested period, the c-value will be larger at the end of the period than if the major earthquake occurs later. More research has to be done especially in the direct comparison of the stress state with seismicity patterns. It would be interesting to remove all the aftershock sequences and test again the similarity between AMR and stress change in southern California. Also, the work should evolve from an AMR circular search to a direct evaluation of a correlation between areas of high stress and AMR.

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