LECTURE 11 OUTLINE - EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (updated 11/25/97)
Instructor: Professor Barbara Romanowicz
Director of Seismological Laboratory
Office Hours: Thursday 2-4 pm , upon appointment only
475 Mc Cone Hall
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
References:
Bolt, Earthquakes, Chapter 10
Gere and Shah: Chapter s 3-4
1.Definitions
prediction
probability of occurence
bogus prediction
2.Historical progression
Animal Behavior
Chinese and Japanese earthquake prediction programs
Russian earthquake prediction program
Greek earthquake prediction program
3.Parameters for forcasts
Parameters monitored as potential precursors
Paleoseismology
Tree rings
Geological study of soil layers
Example: Cascadia Subduction Zone
4.Calculating the odds of an earthquake
Probability
Random occurence
Fault segmentation
Probability plots
Parkfield experiment
5.Early Warning Systems