MILWAUKEE -(KRT) - Scientists have
developed an earthquake early-warning system that could give
southern Californians a few precious seconds to get under a desk,
shut down a commercial operation, get away from dangerous chemicals
or high-tail it off a bridge.
Taking advantage of the low-energy pressure waves, called
P-waves, that precede the more destructive earth-crashing surges,
the S-waves, researchers believe this system could be used to
provide at least some warning to people in compromising or dangerous
positions.
"If you were directly over the epicenter, you'd maybe have
anywhere from zero, one to three seconds," said Richard Allen, a
professor of geology and geophysics at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison and co-author of the paper in today's issue of
Science.
"The farther away you are, the more time you'll have," he said.
"But any warning time is helpful, even if it means just taking a
step back from the hazardous materials you might be working
with."
The system capitalizes on a dense network of sensors that are
already littered around southern California, called the TriNet
system.
"TriNet is used right now to report, real-time, on earthquakes,"
said Hiroo Kanamori of the California Institute of Technology's
seismic laboratory and co-author of the paper.
The system detects the frequency and magnitude of S-waves, and
transmits the data to a central processing center, which then
forwards that information to emergency teams - detailing where
quakes have hit and where they have hit hardest.
By monitoring P-wave activity, this system could be transformed
from a post-information network to an early warning one, said
Allen.
And that could be a boon to people living in earthquake-prone
areas.
But early warning systems are not new to seismology, Allen said.
Mexico, Japan and Taiwan all have some form of alarm system set
up.
However, these systems wouldn't be effective in the fault-ridden
geological landscape of southern California, said Allen.
"There are two kinds of early warning systems," he said. "Front
line and P-wave."
Taiwan and Mexico City use a front-line system. These kinds of
systems detect earthquakes as they happen and then electronically
transmit a warning to nearby cities and towns.
This system can only work if the populated areas are far enough
from the shifting or crashing faults to receive the information
before the quake.
For instance, Mexico City is more than 150 miles from its
earthquake source, and therefore usually has about 70 seconds of
headway before it's struck, Kanamori said.
But, Los Angeles straddles a web of dangerous fault zones, so any
warning from such a system would probably come at the same time - or
after - buildings and freeways started shaking.
And while P-waves have been used in Japan, there isn't a dense
system of sensors like TriNet. And that's what makes Allen and
Kanamori's system unique.
Michael Reichle, assistant director of the California's
Geological Survey's department of conservation, thinks this new
system has promise.
"This is something we've been talking about for a long time," he
said. "This is a method that could be used to give us an estimate of
how big the quake's going to be and when and where it's going to hit
hardest."
Allen and Kanamori are now testing their system on earthquakes in
the Los Angeles region to determine if it can provide accurate
magnitude estimates in real time. There are no immediate plans to
develop an actual warning system.
"We've still got to work out a few bugs," said Allen. "Like false
alarm issues."
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