When the "Big One" strikes,
seismologist Richard Allen likes to think that southern California
will be prepared. Today, he will announce that scientists are ready
to create the most sophisticated earthquake-warning system in the
country's history.
If implemented, the system would transform the way everyone from
factory workers to freeway commuters responds to damaging temblors.
Power plants would be able to shut off before the shaking starts.
Trains could slow down. School children could take cover.
There is, however, one important asterisk: The alerts would go
out only seconds before a quake hit.
After decades of study dedicated to predicting earthquakes days
or months ahead of time, such an achievement might seem
inconsequential. After all, three seconds is hardly enough time to
get out of a chair. But in a time of interconnected networks and
"smart buildings" that can instantly counteract fault shifts with
computer-controlled hydraulics, even a few seconds could
dramatically improve public safety.
"If you know what's coming up in an earthquake, you can have the
system account for it and prepare," says B.T. Spencer, an engineer
at the University of Illinois in Champaign.
The early-warning system, laid out in today's issue of Science,
is possible because of the nature of earthquakes. When a quake
begins, it convulses the rock with two different waves. The faster
wave, called the P-wave, causes little damage. Its slower partner,
the S-wave, is what topples buildings.
By studying three earthquakes in southern California, Dr. Allen
and Hiroo Kanamori of the California Institute of Technology
determined how data from the P-wave can accurately predict the
severity of the S-wave. Further study will examine whether the data
is applicable to other parts of the world.
Southern California, though, was a logical place to start. With
155 seismic sensors regionwide, computers can instantly process and
disseminate massive amounts of data from P-waves.
Areas closest to the epicenter would have the least warning.
Distant places might have as many as 40 seconds.
"[The time] we have to work with here is the difference between
the P- and S-waves," says Allen, a scientist at the University of
Wisconsin in Madison.
Clearly, even 40 seconds is not enough to evacuate a building.
But Allen suggests that workers handling dangerous chemicals might
have time to move to safety. Traffic lights on highway on-ramps
could turn red to stop cars from entering. In Japan, where a similar
system is already in place, the warnings let bullet trains
decelerate.
Yet it is Japan's use of seismic sensors in buildings that
intrigues Allen and Dr. Kanamori most. Some 30 Japanese buildings
use counterweights in upper floors or shock-absorber-like pistons
beneath the ground to survive earthquakes. If similar buildings are
constructed in America, and their sensors can get data from an
early-warning system, performance could improve further.
The idea, most agree, holds promise. But there are concerns. Some
of these countermeasures need electricity, which could be lost in a
quake. Moreover, small quakes or errors could cause false
alarms.
For his part, Allen imagines a system that would allow every
business or institution to determine for itself when it would be
sent a warning - and what it would do with it. It would require an
educational effort, he acknowledges. But it is the future.
"You won't find very many seismologists saying we'll be
successful in predicting earthquakes in the foreseeable future," he
says. "In the meantime, there are other things we can do to mitigate
the hazards."