EARTHQUAKE
warning systems could save thousands of lives in
heavily populated seismic hotspots such as Turkey
and California, scientists say.
Details of a proposed warning system for
California, which has several active faults, are
published today in the journal Science.
Similar networks would work well in any
seismically active region, and a variation was
already used in Japan to stop bullet trains in the
event of a quake, experts noted.
Networks of detectors, which pick up low-energy
waves that precede a major earthquake, could sound
the alarm up to 40 seconds before its full and
devastating effects are felt.
Experts say that while less than a minute’s
warning does not sound like much it could be
crucial to reducing the death toll from major
quakes.Just 15 to 20 seconds warning would allow
air-traffic controllers to stop aircraft from
landing, factories to stop production lines, gas
companies to shut pipelines, bridges to be closed
and trains to be stopped.
Small buildings could be evacuated, and people
without time to get outside could take other steps
to protect themselves, such as sheltering under a
desk or table. The result could be thousands of
lives saved.
The system would use 155 seismic monitoring
stations already in place across California to
pick up P-waves — low-amplitude waves of energy
that are the first to be generated at the
epicentre of an earthquake.
These low power waves generally cause little
damage, but they spread out quickly and are easy
to detect. They are followed by slower-moving
S-waves — high-amplitude, high-energy waves that
shake the ground and pose the greatest threat to
life and property.
The length of time between the arrival of a
P-wave and an S-wave depends on distance from the
epicentre, but can be as long as 40 seconds,
according to researchers at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison.
Cities closer to the epicentre, which are
likely to be hardest hit, would have less time to
react, perhaps just a few seconds, but if the
system was automated for key sections of
infrastructure, many lives might still be saved.
“People who need warning the most will have
less time, but at least the system can give people
a chance to react,” said Richard Allen, Professor
of Geology and Geophysics at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison. “In an earthquake, every second
counts.
“There is a capability now of detecting
earthquakes within a matter of seconds and
transmitting that information in a way that could
provide some early warning to earthquake-prone
regions.”