Posted: November 10, 2005 at 12:15 a.m.

BERKELEY (KRON) -- Scientists at the University of California at Berkeley say they're working on a new system that could provide a warning before a major earthquake hits. While a heads-up of 10 to 20 seconds may not sound like much, researchers say such a warning could save thousands of lives.

Researchers say they used to think you could only tell the magnitude of an earthquake before it happens. Now they say the study of data from thousands of smaller quakes shows there's a phenomenon called a "P-Wave" that appears just seconds before a major seismic event. The farther you are from the epicenter, the longer the potential warning time could be.

Critics warn the information produced in the first few seconds of a quake is far from exact. Seismologist Richard Allen doesn't dispute that.

"Even with that uncertainty, you still know whether it's going to be a magnitude-four or a magnitude-six earthquake," Allen told KRON 4's Heather Donald. "If it's a magnitude-four, then you don't want it disrupting your life. If it's a magnitude-six, then you do want to be doing something."

Allen is testing a system called e-larm that would make the prediction. He says even a few seconds would be long enough for a child to get to shelter and for automatic systems to shut down dangerous machinery, trains, airports, and other complex systems to prevent possible additional damage.

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