Allen CV
Seismo Lab
Earth & Planetary
UC Berkeley

Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking in the San Francisco Bay Area

Richard M. Allen
University of California Berkeley

Seismo. Res. Lett. 77 (3), 371-376, 2006.

Download a reprint: AllenSRL2006.pdf (0.4Mb)

Electronic Supplement: Includes the warning time probability density functions for 26 locations around the San Francisco Bay Area, including cities, airports, and other sites of interest. It also includes a map showing all seismic stations and faults included in the analysis.

Earthquake warning systems rapidly detect the initiation of an earthquake and provide seconds to tens of seconds warning of pending ground shaking. Here we estimate the probability density function (PDF) of warning times that would be available at various locations for likely earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area during the next few decades. We find that, as with other hazard mitigation strategies, warning would be available to many (but not all) of the affected areas for most earthquakes. Warning times are largest for the great earthquakes that will do most damage. These PDFs can be used in cost benefit analyses by potential users of a future warning system. Read more.