ElarmS and the next large earthquake in Italy

Marco Olivieri, Roberto Basili
INGV Rome

Richard M. Allen
University of California Berkeley

AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 2007.

We evaluate the capability of ElarmS to work as an Early Warning System for the next destructive earthquake in Italy. Potential sources were retrieved from the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://www.ingv.it/DISS/) and from the catalogue of historical earthquakes (CPTI04; http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI/). Based on the geometry of the new Italian Broad-Band Seismic Network, we estimate the "Alert time" for each source from different nucleation points and the size of the shadow zone, the area already affected by S-waves. We present our results for the whole country with a particular attention to the metropolitan area of Naples (Southern Italy) that have been selected as a test site for the SAFER project (http://www.saferproject.net/).

© Richard M Allen