Homepage
seismic haz
Preparedness
Earthquakes
Faults
Shaking
Buildings
Losses
More info
Homepage
for EPS 20
Richard Allen
Seismo Lab
Earth & Planetary
UC Berkeley

Earthquake losses

Estimates of past losses and future losses.

Losses from past earthquakes


Northridge M6.7 January 17, 1994
$46 bill estimate from CA Office of Emergency Services (2000 dollars)

Loma Prieta M6.9 October 17, 1989
$10 bill estimate from National Research Council (1994) (2000 dollars)

San Fernando M6.6 February 9, 1971
$10 bill estimate from FEMA (1997) (2000 dollars)


Estimates of future losses


Future losses can be estimated for specific senario earthquakes, e.g. a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, or then can be annualized meaning the average cost of earthquakes per year.

Northern California

Repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake M7.9
Impacting the San Francisco peninsula and costal region to the north.
$54 bill Losses due to building damage only. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.
$170-225 bill Includes all potential losses to buildings, transportation, utility systems etc and seconday effects such as fire and toxic releases. From the 1995 Risk Management SOlutions study.

Hayward fault rupture (north and south segments) M6.9
Impacting East-Bay Cities
$23 bill Losses due to building damage only. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.

Hayward + Rodgers Creek faults M7.3
Impacting East-Bay Cities and regions to the north.
$34 bill Losses due to building damage only. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.

Southern California

Puente Hills fault M7.1
Thrust fault beneath much of the LA basin
$69 bill Losses due to building damage only. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.

Newport-Inglewood fault M6.9
Strike-slip fault beneath the LA basin
$49 bill Losses due to building damage only. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.

These are just a few examples of some of the most damaging scenario earthquakes. For the (much) longer list of all senario earthquakes that have been identified see the full report: Rowshandel et al, CGS, 8.3Mb pdf

Annualized losses

Annualized losses represent the long term, average losses due to potential ground motion hazards of all expected earthquakes in the region.
$2.2 bill This is the average annual losses due to building damage only across California. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.
$104 This is the average annual loss per capita due to building damage only in California. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.
0.15% This is the average annual loss ratio for building across California. This means that, state-wide and on average, earthquake ground motions are expected to cause damage to buildings equal to 0.15% of the dollar values each year. From Rowshandel et al, CGS.